RSS

Wreckage of Arunachal Chief Minister's Chopper, three bodies found: Sources

Reports are coming in that the missing Arunachal Chief Minister Dorjee Khandu has been found dead; the site where his helicopter crashed has also been identified. However, there has been no official confirmation so far.

Continue reading...

U.S. delivering F-16 jets to Egypt

0 comments

130711090352-f-16-story-topThe Obama administration tentatively plans to deliver four F-16 aircraft to Egypt, but is reviewing all U.S. military aid arrangements, according to a Pentagon official.





The planes were scheduled to be shipped by the end of August, but the delivery could be made more complicated if there is no Egyptian military plan to transition to civilian rule and the United States were compelled to formally declare a military coup had taken place, the official said.

If that declaration were made, it most likely would result in aid being halted. The official declined to be identified because of the sensitive nature of the information.

Until Thursday, all indications had been that the deliveries would go through as part of a $1.3 billion 2010 military aid package that called for 20 F-16s and Abrams tank parts to be sent to Egypt. A second Pentagon official had previously said the deliveries "were on track."

 

Read: Why Americans should care about Egypt ?


 

But at the behest of the White House, the Pentagon is now sounding a more cautious note.

"Given the events of last week, the president has directed relevant departments and agencies to review our assistance to the government of Egypt," the Defense Department said in a written statement.

Opinion: U.S. must not fail Egypt


As it measures its response to the recent events on Egypt, the U.S. needs to be extremely careful about focusing on the definition of "coup" and the legitimacy -- or non-legitimacy -- of Mohamed Morsy's election, the draft constitution, and the now-ousted Egyptian president's efforts to give himself additional powers. It needs to be equally careful about focusing on the protests that helped drive him from power, and the legitimacy of political Islam.

Watch Video:






If the U.S. focuses on whether or not a coup took place, it will be ignoring the fact that Egypt is a key center of the Middle East and that U.S. policy will be judged by its success in meeting the needs of Egypt's people. Egypt is a nation whose problems go far deeper than the crisis that began January 2011.
As the Arab Human Development report made clear in 2009, former President Hosni Mubarak's rule had become steadily more ineffective, corrupt, and incapable of meeting the needs of Egypt's people long before 2011. He had been in power since October 1981, but the social and economic progress he made in his first decade in power had faded into a static, incompetent regime by 2005, and one that became steadily more corrupt and unable to meet the needs of Egypt's young and growing population.

The last two years have made the situation far worse in ways that affect every aspect of day-to-day life. Mubarak's fall tore down a fragile regime that mixed a state-driven economy with crony capitalism. It was a country with a bureaucracy that could barely function without a strong leader, one with no opposition parties that had real political experience or capability to govern, and whose "reformers" were (and still are) protesters with no capability to make real reforms.

The end result is that Egypt is not an abstract exercise in political theory. It is a nation of more than 85 million people, at least 25% of whom live in dire poverty, and where unemployment and underemployment can no longer be accurately estimated but have reached the crisis level. It is a nation with over 50% of its populationunder 25 years of age, and 31% under 14, but with an education system in breakdown and much of the infrastructure frozen or losing capacity.

Egypt's foreign reserves have dropped by more than 50%and it faces a crisis in getting loans from the International Monetary Fund. It is a nation where foreign investment has critically declined, tourist revenue has dropped sharply, where many small businesses have already collapsed, and many middle class Egyptians have lost their jobs and savings. Fuel and electric power are lacking, food subsidies are uncertain and sometimes failing, the currency is increasingly unstable, and crime has skyrocketed.

U.S. policy must focus on these realities, and not just politics. The U.S., in partnership with its allies, the World Bank and other international aid agencies institutions needs to support immediate Egyptian efforts to salvage the economy and bring economic reform. It needs to focus on bringing relief and stability. No Egyptian government can succeed -- democratic or not -- that cannot meet the needs of the Egyptian people. Real political legitimacy is not determined by how a government is chosen, but by how well it can meet the needs of its people.

As for politics, the U.S. needs to work with other states to push Egypt's military to support the reforms that failed between early 2011 and Morsy's fall. This means a broad-based effort to agree on a constitution, the creation of real political parties, and help for protesters learning how to organize politically and focus on practical governance and reform. It means taking enough time for elections to be open, to include Islamic and more secular parties, and focusing on the same kind of mixed national government and consensus politics that seem to have emerged in Tunisia.

One test of a solution to a problem is that it does not make things even worse. Threatening Egypt's military, rigidly cutting off aid because of a "coup" under conditions where there is no credible replacement government, and standing aside as Egypt drifts towards internal collapse is not a strategy.

Letting today's celebration of Morsy's fall turn into civil conflict and political paralysis will be a moral and ethical failure on the part of the Obama administration and the Congress, one that will do the Egyptian people vast harm, cripple a key ally, and leave a legacy of lasting anger in both Egypt and the region.


Courtesy & Thanks: CNN
Continue Reading... Labels: , ,


India to intercept Blackberry chats

0 comments

blackberry-logo-3Blackberry is ready to provide the Indian authorities with a way to intercept consumers' messages sent and received on its platform.


The news was revealed by the Times of India, which published part of a leaked government document.


It said officials appeared to have dropped demands that the firm also made it possible to access business emails sent over Blackberry Enterprise Server.


This would bring an end to a long-running dispute between the two sides.


In 2010 the country had threatened to impose a ban on Blackberry devices, saying its secret services needed to be able to access suspects' messages and have the keys to decrypt them in order to prevent terrorist attacks.


Blackberry has always said it does not have a "master key" or "backdoor" that would make encrypted corporate information sent through its service accessible either to itself or law enforcers.


The Times of India said the government now appeared to be "content" just being told which firms were using the Canadian company's Enterprise services.


'Lawful access'


The paper said it had seen an internal document from the country's Department of Telecommunications, which read: "Barring a few minor points for improvement of viewers, the lawful interception system for Blackberry services is ready for use."


It added that nine of 10 telecom networks offering Blackberry services were in the process of making it possible for authorities to carry out intercepts.


As a consequence, it said, authorities would be able to:




  • track email and email attachments sent over the consumer-version of Blackberry Internet Service (BIS)

  • see when chats sent over Blackberry Messenger (BBM) were delivered and read

  • monitor which websites were visited


It added that the Canadian firm would soon sign an agreement to hand over its own Mumbai (Bombay) based monitoring equipment and train government officials to use it.


Blackberry has issued a statement confirming its co-operation.


"The lawful access capability now available to Blackberry's carrier partners meets the standard required by the government of India for all consumer messaging services offered in the Indian marketplace," it said.


"We also wish to underscore, once again, that this enablement of lawful access does not extend to Blackberry Enterprise Server."


Apple encryption


The news has prompted some analysts to wonder if Apple will now become the focus of the Indian government's attention.


The iPhone-maker has said that all conversations on its iMessage and Facetime services use end-to-end encryption, so that nobody except the sender and receiver can make sense of them.


"India is about to become a very significant market for Apple - demand for premium smartphones is starting to rise quite quickly there among the affluent classes," said Chris Green, a technology analyst at the Davies Murphy Group consultancy.


"The pressure will be on it to cut a deal. Apple could either change its system just in India or overhaul its entire messaging system - but that would be awkward in light of the Prism revelations about how the US government carries out surveillance."


It may be some time before India is able to make full use of the information it already has access to.


A report in the Wall Street Journal earlier this week said the country was having problems with its Centralised Monitoring System - the system which will allow officials to link their equipment up to local telecom and internet service providers.


Among the issues reported was the fact that the current version of the software being deployed was not capable of allowing officers to search for specific keywords, meaning they would have to read through every captured message to find the information they wanted.


It added that the centralised data centre where the messages would be stored to be analysed was not yet operational, but should be by October.

Continue Reading... Labels:


Is kuruvai cultivation possible?

0 comments

29TH_CROP_col_eps_1470633gIrrigation managers and agriculture officials are debating the exact extent on which farmers can take up cultivation of the short-term kuruvai crop this year under adverse conditions.


Going by data for the last 10 years and observations of officials of the Agriculture and Public Works Departments, it appears that one lakh acres can be covered this year.  In a normal year, 3.3 lakh acres are covered.


The present situation is extremely adverse as the Mettur dam, the lifeline of the delta, has a storage of hardly four thousand million cubic feet (tmc ft) against the capacity of 93.47 tmc ft.  On the same day last year, the storage was about 41 tmc ft. Besides, the groundwater table in the Thanjavur, Nagapattinam and Tiruvarur districts, three of which accounts for 85 per cent of the Kuruvai cultivation in the delta, does not present a bright scenario.


In Karnataka too, the situation is very bleak. Four reservoirs in that State across the Cauvery have a combined storage of around 13 tmc ft against their capacity of 114 tmc ft.


The kuruvai crop is essentially dependent upon discharge of water from Mettur which, in turn, relies on release from Karnataka. The normal pattern is to commence nursery in May-June and complete harvest the latest by early October. The idea is to make use of the Cauvery river water for the cultivation as the period coincides with the southwest monsoon, during which the catchment areas in Karnataka and Kerala usually experience heavy rainfall.


If Karnataka does not release Tamil Nadu’s share of water, as prescribed by the Cauvery Water Disputes Tribunal, the crop will be in for trouble.


This was what witnessed in at least four years since 2002. During 2002-2003, 2003-2004 and 2004-2005, the shortfall in realisation of the water [as per the Tribunal’s interim order] during southwest monsoon (June-September) varied from about 97 tmc ft to 107 tmc ft to 35 tmc ft. In 2012-2013, even going by a distress-sharing formula, Tamil Nadu should have received, during the corresponding period, 54.5 tmc ft more than what it realised – around 28 tmc ft. In all these four years, the coverage in Thanjavur, Nagapattinam and Tiruvarur was over one lakh acres. Last year, due to a combination of steps including 12-hour power supply in the region, the coverage was 1.3 lakh acres. This is why the authorities are hopeful of achieving one lakh acres even this year too. As of now, around 6,920 acres have been covered in Thanjavur and Nagapattinam.


This time, the coverage of the crop is expected to be accomplished by using filter points, tube wells and open wells.


Indicating the Agriculture department’s plans for the present year, an official explains that different strategies such as mat nursery and community nursery will be adopted. The System of Rice Intensification (SRI), a cultivation method requiring less nursery area,  water and labour apart from fewer seeds, is being encouraged in a big way. Seeds of short-term paddy varieties are being distributed through agricultural extension centres and private dealers.  The State has a sufficient stock of certified seeds, fertilizers and pesticides.


Last week, Chief Minister Jayalalithaa chaired a meeting to take stock of the situation. Asked about the outcome, the official replies that there will soon be an announcement.

Continue Reading... Labels: ,


Reserve Bank places restriction on gold imports by banks

0 comments

Reserve Bank of IndiaThe Reserve Bank of India (RBI), on Monday, imposed restrictions on banks to import gold with immediate effect to curb the widening current account deficit (CAD).


“To moderate the demand for gold for domestic use, it has been decided to restrict the import of gold on consignment basis by banks, only to meet the genuine needs of exporters of gold jewellery,” RBI said in a notification.


The Working Group on Gold, under the chairmanship of K. U. B. Rao, had recommended aligning gold import regulations with rest of the imports for creating a level-playing field between gold imports and other imports.


“Bulk of the gold imported by nominated banks is on consignment basis whereby nominated banks do not have to fund these stocks,” said the RBI.


Loan basis


Nominated banks and agencies were permitted to import gold on loan basis, suppliers’ credit / buyers’ credit basis, consignment basis as also on unfixed price basis.


The widening CAD is a worry for the government as well as for the central bank. It reached a record high of 6.7 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the October-December quarter on the back of rising oil and gold imports.


In the last monetary policy announcement, the RBI had stated that it would restrict the import of gold on consignment basis by banks only to meet the genuine needs of exporters of gold jewellery.

Continue Reading... Labels: ,


Huge gold spree takes shine off slowing inflation

0 comments

download (5)India's gold and silver imports shot up 138 percent on year in April as customers took advantage of lower prices, increasing pressure on the current account balance and limiting the space for monetary easing even though inflation slowed in the month.


The surge in gold buying sent the April trade deficit to $17.8 billion, up more than 72 percent from March, official data showed, because retail customers in the world's largest gold importer went on a buying spree after a sharp fall in global prices.


The size of the increase came as a shock to the government, which imposed duties on gold imports earlier this year to stem a rising import bill. The attraction of lower prices more than offset the duties.


"The rise in gold imports is surprising. It was not expected," Commerce Secretary S.R. Rao told reporters.


The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) brought into effect on Monday previously announced restrictions on banks importing gold. A Commerce and Trade ministry official told Reuters that the April surge had revived discussion in the government of a further duty hike.


Gold and silver imports surged an annual 138 percent to $7.5 billion after world prices slumped 17 percent over a period of two weeks in the month. The timing coincided with traditional peak-buying seasons for some states celebrating festivals.


Silver imports usually account for a very small amount of the combined total, which is dominated by gold.


The RBI flagged a high current account deficit earlier this month as the biggest risk "by far" to Asia's third-largest economy even as it cut interest rates by a quarter point for the third time since January.


The current account gap widened to a record high 6.7 percent of GDP in the December quarter, driven by heavy oil and gold imports and lower exports.


The central bank said the deficit and risks of a resurgence of inflationary pressures constrained room for further policy easing.


SLOWING INFLATION


Still, some analysts are optimistic of another rate cut by mid-2013 as they expect the trade deficit to narrow with a slowdown in gold demand, while inflation has come down sharply in recent months.


"The surge in gold imports in April could have been due to frontloading of demand given the fall in gold prices, but this demand will come off in the next few months," said Siddhartha Sanyal, India economist, Barclays Capital in Mumbai.


"I don't expect RBI will take any view based on just April trade deficit number."


Headline prices -- as measured by the wholesale price index (WPI) -- have been rising at the lowest clip in more than three years, giving some relief both for consumers and the government, which is preparing to face elections within a year.


WPI-based inflation, due on Tuesday around 0630 GMT, probably eased to 5.50 pct in April, the lowest level since November 2009 and the third consecutive month of cooling price rises, according to a Reuters poll.


Unlike most central banks, the Reserve Bank of India relies primarily on the WPI to draw up its monetary policy, not the consumer price basket.


Government data showed on Monday that annual retail inflation slowed by a full percentage point to a 14-month low of 9.39 percent in April, the second consecutive drop. Lower food prices were behind the slowdown, rising 10.61 percent in April, sharply lower than 12.42 percent in March.


"Overall, with both headline CPI and WPI moderating and growth still languishing, we expect a cumulative 50 basis points of rate cuts in 2013," Nomura wrote in a note on Monday.


India's growth in 2012/13 was likely the lowest in a decade, and is not expected to much surpass 6 percent in the 2013/14 fiscal year.

Continue Reading... Labels: ,


Gandhi collections is for sale

0 comments

_67543377_255One of the largest collections of Mahatma Gandhi memorabilia is to go on sale later this month.


Shropshire auctioneers Mullocks said the items will be sold alongside other important and historical documents.


A version of the Declaration of Irish Independence issued during the 1916 Easter Rising, considered to be the only copy in the world, is for sale.


A pair of sandals worn by Gandhi are expected to fetch between £10,000 and £15,000.


A "rare British Parliament paper declaring Gandhi a terrorist" from 1932 is also for sale with a guide price of between £200 and £300, the Church Stretton-based auctioneers said.


More than 300 items will be on sale on 21 May.


Other lots include a photograph showing Gandhi and Nehru under arrest by the British, dating from 1942, and a "very unusual" press photograph showing him in a suit.

Continue Reading... Labels: ,


Chidambaram turns ‘TV reporter’

0 comments

P_CHIDAMBARAM_1451594gThe BJP’s defeat in the Karnataka Assembly polls turned Union Finance Minister P. Chidambaram into a ‘TV reporter’ on Wednesday.


The senior Congress leader took the mike from a reporter and held it in front of senior BJP leader Jaswant Singh as he emerged from Parliament.


“Don’t you credit Congress with victory?” he asked Mr. Singh.


In fact, the Minister was being asked questions by reporters on the elections when he saw Mr. Singh coming out. He took the reporter’s mike swiftly and changed role. “He is a gentleman,” Mr. Chidambaram said about Mr. Singh while returning mike to the reporter.


“It is a message to all political parties. The people watch [us] very closely. Whoever forms the government must deliver,” the Minister said. Agreeing with Mr. Chidambaram, Mr. Singh said that people voted for governance and “if you stop governance, people will vote you out.”

Continue Reading... Labels:


“Incursion could be China’s way to bring border talks on front-burner”

0 comments

RajTamil News LogoEveryone from Prime Minister Manmohan Singh downwards might have called the three-week Chinese encampment in eastern Ladakh a “localised” problem, but it was probably anything but that. This is the conclusion Indian officials are leaning towards as they try and read the tea leaves left behind by their uninvited guests on the Depsang plain.


And though opinions still differ, a number of sources believe the incursion by the People's Liberation Army across the Line of Actual Control was China’s way of bringing the border settlement talks — which it’s previous leadership had clearly put on the back burner — back on the agenda.


The signalling by setting up tents in a disputed area was also the Chinese way of telling India to discuss the Border Defence Cooperation Agreement (BDCA) it had proposed in March. India has yet to reply to the proposals China made.


Contrary to reports in some sections of the media, the BDCA draft does not contain proposals to restrict the construction of border infrastructure. However, the reason why India is yet to respond to the Chinese text is that it wants to carefully study the draft in order to avoid any hidden spring traps that may come alive in future.


The BDCA proposals fall well short of exchanging maps — something India had been pressing for till a decade ago — and focus on expanding talks between ground level troops on the border, besides increasing communication between the two sides at various levels, sources said while not choosing to elaborate any further.


The feeling in Indian circles is that since many high level exchanges are taking place between the two sides, the Chinese intention was to bring the subject to the fore at the high political level, possibly when Premier Li Keqiang visits India. It is likely to be aired during External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid’s China trip beginning later this week.


This perception about Chinese signalling is bolstered by a curious feature about the incursion. The group of tents put up by the Chinese were isolated. There were no support structures between the tents and their forward positions over 15 km away. “We couldn’t fathom why,” confessed the sources.


But there are some doubts too about this theory. The perception that the Chinese were there for strategic reasons could be misplaced. This is because during the first round of diplomatic exchanges at various levels, the Chinese did not appear to be giving the same version. “It’s a bit of a mystery,” said the sources.


Asked if at any point there had been harsh exchanges, the sources said it didn’t come to that except when the Indian Ambassador in Beijing S. Jaishankar told the Chinese that a prolonged stay could impact on bilateral relations.

Continue Reading... Labels: ,


India cuts subsidies on some fertilisers

0 comments

download (1)India on Wednesday decided to cut the subsidies on phosphate and potash-based fertilisers in the fiscal year that began in April in an effort to rein in its fiscal deficit.


The cut for the second year in a row will limit Indian fertiliser companies' ability to pass on falls in global fertiliser prices to local farmers and thereby stem any rebound in consumption of potash and phosphate based fertilisers which fell by nearly 30 percent last year.


It will also limit India's imports of potash and phosphate. India imports all its potash and also buys about 90 percent of its phosphate from abroad.


The subsidy for diammonium phosphate (DAP) has been cut by 14 percent from a year ago to 12,350 rupees per tonne for 2013/14, and for muriate of potash (MoP) by 21.5 percent to 11,300 rupees per tonne, the government said in a statement.


"According to the new rates, the total subsidy for the potash and phosphate fertilisers for the financial year 2013-14 would be reduced by around 15 percent," the statement said.


Reuters reported exclusively in February that India was planning to cut its fertiliser subsidy bill by at least 15 percent for the fiscal year 2013-14 by reducing subsidies for DAP and MoP.


In the last fiscal year, the government earmarked 305.76 billion rupees to subsidise phosphate and potash-based fertilisers.


"Fertiliser companies could have cut potash and phosphate prices sharply, had the government kept fertiliser subsidy steady. Now they can reduce prices marginally," said a senior official with a fertiliser producer, who declined to be named.


India imported MoP at an average price of $490 a tonne last year, while prices of DAP hovered around $580 per tonne. This year India is buying MoP at $427 a tonne, while global DAP prices have fallen to about $525 a tonne.


Potash Corp (POT.TO), Mosaic Co (MOS.N), Agrium Inc (AGU.TO), Uralkali (URKA.MM), Arab Potash Co APOT.AM, ICL Israel Chemicals (ICL.TA) and Germany's K+S AG (SDFGn.DE) are among the major potash suppliers to India.


Moroccan phosphate producer Office Cherifien des Phosphates (OCP), PhosChem and Russian fertiliser group Phosagro are key DAP suppliers to India.



Copyright, Courtesy & Thanks: Reuters
Continue Reading... Labels: ,


Will gold prices go up or down? Here's the economics

0 comments

Gold coins are seen in the Austrian auction house Dorotheum in ViennaGold was the most sought after investment in the past decade. During this time, gold added to its reputation as a safe haven during the global economic crisis. But off late gold prices have experienced significant corrections. Here are the factors which made gold prices record new highs in the last decade and the factors which made it take a plunge in the previous months.


US ECONOMY
Being a dominant player in the global economy, the US economy has always maintained an inverse relation with the gold markets.


Past situation
The US faced the deepest and longest recession since the Great Depression of 1930s. The manufacturing industry took a severe hit. The economy was unable to generate new jobs, driving the unemployment rate higher. The housing sector was affected by numerous foreclosures. The US had to support its wrecked banking system by quantitative easing sethods. During that time, the investors were favoring gold over the US equity markets.


Present situation
The US economy started to gain momentum in the month of March 2013. The employment data of US was encouraging with the private sector adding a substantial number of new jobs and posting good gains in the first quarter. Being a personal consumption driven economy, the US found support in the form of increased activity in motor vehicles and housing sectors. This, in turn, started stimulating the much needed labour market activity resulting in increased employment opportunities. Increased household wealth, increased spending at retail outlets and stores also showed signs of recovery. Even the home foreclosures and layoff rates were recorded at pre-recession levels. The economic recovery signs improved investors' confidence in equity markets. They started preferring equity markets over gold.


GLOBAL ECONOMY


Past situation
Not just US but all the major economies across the globe experienced a major financial crisis post 2007. The turmoil in Europe with respect to the economic slowdown and the debt crisis negatively affected the euro. The Japanese economy was spiraling in the effect of the "lost decade".


Present situation
Though the current condition of the euro zone doesn't boast of full recovery, it has started showing good signs. With Cyprus banks opting for selling their gold reserves to pay off the debt, the supply of gold increased. In the anticipation of more euro nations following the suit, investors have cut down their exposure to gold. Gold ETFs experienced huge sell-off pressure.


US DOLLAR


Past situation
The quantitative easing measures by US weakened the US dollar. Demand for the dollar decreased. The major federal banks were opting for gold over the dollar, with China being the front runner. This acted as one of the driving factors for the gold price rally. In anticipation of driving inflation rates higher once the quantitative easing measures end, investors preferred gold as a hedge against inflation.


Present situation
With signs of economic recovery, the US dollar has strengthened. The current inflation data across the globe is not in sync with the anticipations. The inflation numbers were recorded lower than expected. Investors started favoring the dollar over gold.


Conclusion
When compared to the global markets, Indian markets experienced higher growth rates in gold prices.


The Indian rupee, which used trade around 43 per dollar, is now valued at around 54 per dollar. The global economic conditions of the past decade along with the weakness of the rupee acted in favor of higher gold prices during the last decade in India.


The economic indicators in the coming quarter will define the direction of gold in the future. If the US economy continues its good run, you can expect a further decline in gold prices in 2013.



Nitin Vyakaranam is the founder and chief executive officer,ArthaYantra, an integrated online personal finance company.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are the personal opinions of the author. NDTV Profit isnot responsible for the accuracy, completeness, suitability, or validity of any information on this article.
Continue Reading... Labels: ,


How lower gold, oil prices affect India, world economy

0 comments

41346131740_625x300London: Lower airfares, cheaper food and rising profit margins are among the benefits that should flow from tumbling oil and commodity prices - but only after a long lead time.

Having poured $400 billion into commodities over the past decade, many investors are now selling. Their confidence that risky assets could only float higher on a rising tide of cheap central bank money has crumbled as the global economy fails to respond to the stimulus.

Even China, an important buyer of natural resources, is slowing. Inflation, against which gold in particular is a classic hedge, is falling nearly everywhere.

Price pressures will ease further if natural resources keep falling. That is bad news for exporters such as Saudi Arabia and Brazil but good news for net importers.

Weaker commodity prices should be positive for the world economy on average because falling inflation supports consumer spending, said ABN AMRO economist Han de Jong.

Standard and Poor's Goldman Sachs Commodity Index has fallen 6.6 per cent so far this year.

But raw materials represent a small part of most firms' costs, so it is not surprising that some businesses, especially those in very competitive markets, are not getting carried away.

"There are thousands of components in a car so the impact might not be that great," said Cui Liyan with Great Wall Motor Co Ltd, China's top maker of SUVs and pick-up trucks. "Great Wall has never passed on additional costs to consumers when commodity prices have surged in the past."

For a U.S. economy experiencing slow growth, cheaper energy is a positive, said Michael Ward, chief executive of CSX Corp, the country's second-largest railroad. But CSX itself is indifferent because it runs a fuel surcharge programme. "Over time, we're passing the increases or decreases in fuel to the customer," Ward said.

An official at South Korea's largest food maker, CJ CheilJedang Corp, said it normally takes four to six months before a fall in agricultural futures prices passes through into the firm's product prices.

OIL IS THE ONE TO WATCH

The lurches in gold, including the sharpest one-day drop in 30 years on Monday, have grabbed the attention, but falling oil prices are of much greater economic significance.

Brent crude is down about 16 per cent from the year's high at $119.17, hit on February 8.

Economists at JP Morgan estimate a 15 per cent drop in the price of oil, caused by a supply increase, would be enough to lift global economic output this year by 0.2 percentage points.

But if the price fall reflects a darkening economic outlook, the same 15 per cent decline is consistent with a 0.5 per cent downgrade in global growth prospects for the year, the bank calculates.

An executive at Indian engineering company Larsen & Toubro said the broader fall in commodity prices cut both ways. Cheaper materials would help profit margins and, if the trend were sustained, would increase the chances of lower interest rates, he said. But prices were falling for a reason.

"Prices are down today because the investment cycle has slowed and demand for commodities has slowed. If this extends over the long term, it cannot be a good thing for a projects company such as ours," he said.

THE EXCHANGE RATE FACTOR

Pinpointing the repercussions of the commodity sell off is further complicated because it cannot be seen in isolation.

KCE Electronics Pcl, a Thai maker of printed circuit boards, should be sitting pretty because it uses a lot of copper, which is down 12 per cent so far in 2013.

But executive director Panja Senadisai said the savings are outweighed by the strength of the Thai baht against the dollar, which hurts KCE's exports.

The story is similar at Tenneco Inc's Indian subsidiary: the auto components maker is seeing lower prices for steel and rubber - the key Tokyo Commodity Exchange rubber contract has shed more than 8 percent this week - but a weak rupee and high inflation are diluting the benefit.

Currencies also muddy the waters for Japan Airlines Co Ltd, with a weakening yen on balance a negative for the airline, said JAL spokesman Taro Namba. Still, JAL has already responded by announcing a 7.6 per cent cut in cargo fuel surcharges from May 1 to 122 yen per kilogram on long-haul international routes. And Korean Air Lines Co Ltd, South Korea's biggest airline, expects a drop in fuel surcharges to lead to lower passenger ticket prices with a one month's lag.

PASSING ALONG THE FOOD CHAIN

Cheaper food is a particular boon in countries with uncomfortably high inflation. Take Indonesia, where inflation scaled a nearly two-year high of 5.9 per cent in March.

Thanks to falling prices for everything from rice to meat and shallots, the month-on-month rise in consumer prices will probably be less than 0.1 per cent in April, according to deputy central bank governor Perry Warjiyo.

Business models differ and not everyone is rushing to pass on cheaper inputs. Danish shipping group A.P. Moller - Maersk Group is an example.

"Our job is to make sure that the customers understand that they actually have a big value proposition by shipping with us... The customers are willing to pay a bit more. This is not a commodity. There's more to it than just shipping a box," said chief executive Nils Anderson.

With global inflation by and large benign, the door is open for leading central banks to provide even more monetary stimulus. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said he would favour increasing the pace of the Federal Reserve's bond buying if inflation continues to go down.

Falling commodity prices and slower wage growth give the Bank of England more scope to resume bond-buying to try to galvanise the economy, BOE policymaker Martin Weale argued.

Even the conservative European Central Bank has hinted that it is open to doing more. With the bank's economists forecasting an inflation rate of just 1.3 per cent in 2014, well short of its target of just under 2 per cent, more and more economists expect an interest rate cut next month.

China too has increased policy room. "The drop in global commodity prices is obviously very good news for China, because it will help lessen imported inflationary pressure and leaves Beijing much more scope to expand credit and loosen monetary policy to bolster the domestic economy," said Yuan Gangming, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

INDIA VS AUSTRALIA

India, Asia's third-largest economy, is hoping that the commodity rout will not only dampen inflation but also reduce its twin deficits. Crude and gold imports contribute nearly 45 per cent of India's total import bill.

"The fall will help us deal with the widening current account deficit, which is the biggest worry for the government," said a senior official at the ministry of finance in New Delhi.

India spent $169 billion on foreign oil in the fiscal year that ended in March, 9 per cent more than the year before. That is a big factor behind a full-year current account deficit likely to have been around 5 per cent of GDP - a level the central bank governor has called unsustainable.

And because India heavily subsidises consumer fuels and fertilizer, the government's budget deficit for the new fiscal year could well come in below its target of 4.8 per cent of GDP if global commodity prices keep declining, the official added. The fall in crude prices could halve the oil subsidy bill.

Australia would appear to be an obvious loser from an end to the commodities super-cycle. The 'Lucky Country' has enjoyed more than 20 years of unbroken growth, largely thanks to booming exports of minerals and energy to Asia.

Lower commodity prices and a strong Australian dollar have already forced Treasurer Wayne Swan to slash his forecast for tax revenues, especially from company earnings and a new profits tax on big iron ore and copper mines. As a result the government has had to abandon its promise to return to a budget surplus for the year ending in June. But Swan remains optimistic about growth prospects across Asia.

"The growth in the middle classes across the Asian region will produce demand for a whole range of goods and services, not just in resources, not just in agriculture, but across a wide range of activities and I think the consequence of that will only be good for Australia," he said.

Copyright @ Thomson Reuters 2013

Continue Reading... Labels: ,


Apply online for PF transfer, withdrawals: EPFO

0 comments

EPFO_jpg_1432374fOver 50 million subscribers of the retirement fund body EPFO will be able to apply online for transfer and withdrawal of their provident fund from July 1, a move aimed at speedy settlement of claims.


“We have decided to set up a central clearance house which will be operational on July 1. This will enable subscribers to apply online for settlement of the withdrawal and transfer of funds claims,” EPFO’s Central Provident Fund Commissioner Anil Swarup told reporters at PHD conference.


“The biggest problem faced by the subscribers is transferring their accounts on change of job. This central clearance facility will expedite the process”, he added.


The facility will enable subscribes to track online the status of their applications for transfer and withdrawals.


However, the EPFO’s ambitious plan to provide permanent account number to all subscribers would be possible by early next year.



Please Click Here: Apply online for PF transfer, withdrawals



“It would be done in 8-10 months. Since the process of providing permanent account number to all subscribers will take time, we thought of setting up central clearance house first,” he said.


Under the new system, the onus of verifying the details of the PF account from previous employers would be on the EPFO. At present, employees have to get their applications verified from their employers for settlement of claims.


“The onus of getting the detail of the PF account verified from employers would be on the Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) in the new online system for transfer and withdrawal claims,” Mr. Swarup said.

Continue Reading... Labels:


Social media may influence 160 LS seats in 2014

0 comments

13cfd781-8589-4004-9700-aab81f0ece96hiresIn these mostly urbanizing constituencies, social-media usage is now “sufficiently widespread” to influence the outcome of a general election slated for 2014, the study by IRIS Knowledge Foundation and supported by the Internet and Mobile Association of India (IAMAI), indicates.


On April 4, Congress scion Rahul Gandhi’s high-profile address to the Confederation of Indian Industry, a leading business forum, was trending topmost on Twitter in India that day, some posts by rivals mocking him.


A series of lectures by Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi, a presumptive PM, this week too garnered strong social-media attention, with his and Gandhi’s supporters competing online to run the other down.


A deeply polarizing figure still, Modi is often accused of watching over a carnage that killed nearly 2000 people in 2002, mostly Muslims. Yet, he has pulled off a stunning online strategy to showcase Gujarat as India’s Guandong, a south China province with top GDP rankings and investment.


Research shows that social media is more persuasive than television ads. Nearly 100 million Indians, or more than Germany’s population, use the Internet each day. Of this, 40 million have assured broadband, the ones most likely to have at least one social media account.


“Unlike Obama, who used social media directly for votes, Indian politicians have tended to use it more to mould public discourse,” says Sunil Abraham, the CEO of The Centre for Internet and Society.


Watch Video:




That is likely to change in 2014. Not surprisingly, Modi became the third politician globally, a fter Obama and Australian PM Julia Gillard, to host a political conference on Google+ hangout.


Chief ministers in states are also leveraging social media. Bihar has unveiled a re-branded campaign called, “Bihar ka haq” or Bihar’s Rightful Cause, on Facebook.


Social-media-impacted constituencies, according to the study, are those where Facebook users are more than the victory margin of the winner in the last Lok Sabha election, or where such users account for over 10% of the voting population.

Continue Reading... Labels: , , ,


F-35 Joint Strike Fighter battles for future

0 comments

p017j16dThe F-35 Lightning II, better known as the Joint Strike Fighter, is the world’s most expensive military weapons programme.


The stealthy fifth-generation fighter, built by Lockheed Martin, is designed to penetrate foreign air defences and bolster US military superiority – and that of its allies - in the years to come.  Along with its ability to evade radar, the supersonic Joint Strike Fighter boasts the world’s “most powerful” fighter turbofan, a helmet-mounted display that is designed to give the pilot a 360-degree virtual view combining sensor and flight data, and advanced electronic arrays that will allow it to pick out air and ground targets.


But the crown jewel of the US military’s technology investment portfolio is now becoming a glaring eyesore for Pentagon planners who are forced to defend its ballooning costs and delays while the military is facing across the board cuts.


To compound the problem has been a slew of technical problems from getting the vaunted helmet-mounted display to work to peeling in the aircraft’s stealth coating. Other classified problems have also been identified.  


But military officials working on the programme have a simple message: when it comes to so-called military megaprojects , these sorts of problems are bound to happen. “It’s never nearly as bad, nor nearly as it good as it first appears,” Vice Admiral David Dunaway, the commander of Naval Air Systems Command, in Patuxent River, Maryland, told an audience at a Navy trade show this week in the Washington DC area.


While touting progress, Dunaway was careful to temper expectations about the aircraft, calling the F-35 a “fairly mature air vehicle”. The biggest problem the programme now faces is attempts to change the requirements for the aircraft, something that typically happens with Pentagon weapons where development can stretch out over years and even decades.


Such changes, which inevitably add complexity, are often made without considering the potential costs. “Change will kill the programme,” Dunaway said emphatically.


‘Trillion dollar fighter’


The F-35 is being developed in three variants that will eventually be used by the US Air Force, Navy, Marine Corps, as well as eight other countries that have committed to buying the aircraft and are helping to pay for its development. The theory was that having a basic common frame across three services would help keep costs down.


The US Air Force will fly the F-35A, which takes off and lands like a conventional aircraft, while the Navy will get the F-35C, which can operate from aircraft carriers. The most complex of the three variants is the short takeoff and vertical landing (STOVL) aircraft that is supposed to be able to operate without the need for a traditional runway.


That version of the aircraft, known as the F-35B, has what’s called a “thrust vectoring nozzle,” which deflects engine exhaust to achieve the vertical lift that allows the aircraft to hover. The STOVL version—the first to go into service - will be used by the US Marine Corps and the Royal Navy.


Although the first planes have long since been delivered for testing, the aircraft of the future continues to hit turbulence. The engine of an F-35A developed a crack that temporarily grounded the entire fleet earlier this year; the tail hook for the F-35C, which allows it to land on an aircraft carrier, had to be redesigned by aircraft maker Lockheed Martin, and there have been concerns that intense heat from engine of the aircraft could endanger the crew and equipment onboard aircraft carrier (officials speaking at the show said they are looking at protective coatings).


While the officials spoke about the progress on all three variants, they also acknowledged there will likely be more difficulties ahead. The radar-evading aircraft, which was originally billed as an “affordable,” had grown in cost and complexity, while the date for fielding the aircraft has slipped a number of times.  Estimates suggest that the craft will not be operational until 2018, eight years behind initial estimates. The total programme cost is now estimated at about $400 billion, while the cost of sustaining the aircraft over their expected 30 year life is expected to run over $1 trillion, a figure that has led to headlined dubbing it – whether fairly or not – the “trillion dollar fighter.”


But the planes problems are not over yet. They are likely to continue as the military moves the aircraft from development and testing and into operations, officials said. “I guarantee you we will discover other things,” said Rear Admiral Mark W Darrah, the head of Naval Air Warfare Center Aircraft Division. “Once at sea, we re going to make new discoveries, just like every other platform.”


It’s not just technical problems that may challenge the new aircraft. Critics of the Joint Strike Fighter point out that countries like China are developing and acquiring weapons that will push aircraft carriers so far out to sea that the F-35, which has a range of 1,000km (600 miles), will not be able to strike inside enemies’ borders. And then there is a new class of advanced pilotless drones being developed, such as the X-47B, which may be able to do some of the same missions, but without risking pilot’s lives.


But for now at least the programme continues and officials say things are back on schedule. Rear Admiral Randolph Mahr, the deputy head of the Joint Strike Fighter programme, says that an initial batch of operational STOVL aircraft will be delivered to the Marine Corps by the summer of 2015, as currently planned. “The Marine Corps is holding us to that date,” he said.


Any delays to that delivery – or others – are not likely to go down well. The US Defense Department is facing funding cuts as part of a budget deal known as sequestration. While cutting an expensive aircraft programme may look like an attractive option, many analysts warn this will result in a “death spiral,” where reducing the number of aircraft pushes the unit price up, making it even more costly.


Despite its problems, the F-35 so far appears to have avoided the axe amid the current budget turmoil. The president this week requested $8.4 billion to continue the Joint Strike fighter during the next fiscal year, leaving the aircraft safe … at least for now.


If you would like to comment on this article or anything else you have seen on Future, head over to our Facebook page or message us onTwitter.

Continue Reading... Labels: , ,


A village that plants 111 trees for every girl born

0 comments

Piplantri_1424782g

In an atmosphere where every morning, our newspapers greet us with stories of girls being tormented, raped, killed or treated like a doormat in one way or another, trust India's “village republics” to bring in some good news from time to time.


One such village in southern Rajasthan's Rajsamand district is quietly practicing its own, homegrown brand of Eco-feminism and achieving spectacular results.


For the last several years, Piplantri village panchayat has been saving girl children and increasing the green cover in and around it at the same time.


Here, villagers plant 111 trees every time a girl is born and the community ensures these trees survive, attaining fruition as the girls grow up.


Over the last six years, people here have managed to plant over a quarter million trees on the village's grazing commons- inlcuding neem, sheesham, mango, Amla among others.


On an average 60 girls are born here every year, according to the village's former sarpanch Shyam Sundar Paliwal, who was instrumental in starting this initiative in the memory of his daughter Kiran, who died a few years ago.


In about half these cases, parents are reluctant to accept the girl children, he says.


Such families are identified by a village committee comprising the village school principal along with panchayat and Anganwadi members.


Rs. 21,000 are collected from the village residents and Rs.10,000 from the girl's father and this sum of Rs. 31,000 is made into a fixed deposit for the girl, with a maturity period of 20 years.



“We make these parents sign an affidavit promising that they would not marry her off before the legal age, send her to school regularly and take care of the trees planted in her name,” says Mr. Paliwal.But here's the best part.


People also plant 11 trees whenever a family member dies.


But this village of 8,000 did not just stop at planting trees and greening their commons. To prevent these trees from being infested with termite, the residents planted over two and a half million Aloevera plants around them.


Now these trees, especially the Aloevera, are a source of livelihood for several residents.


“Gradually, we realized that aloevera could be processed and marketed in a variety of ways. So we invited some experts and asked them to train our women. Now residents make and market aloevera products like juice, gel, pickle etc,” he says.


The village panchayat, which has a studio-recorded anthem and a website of its own, has completely banned alcohol, open grazing of animals and cutting of trees.


Villagers claim there has not been any police case here for the last 7-8 years.


Mr. Paliwal recalls the visit of social activist Anna Hazare, who was very happy with the progress made by the village, he says.


“But Rajasthan is quite backward in terms of village development compared to panchayats in Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra etc. So we need to work hard towards creating more and more empowered villages,” says the former sarpanch, hoping the government listens to him.

Continue Reading... Labels: ,


India’s nuclear power problem

0 comments

09OEB_PROMISE_JPG_1421518gRecent people’s protest movements at Jaitpur (Maharashtra), Kovvada (Andhra Pradesh), Mithi Virdi (Gujarat) and Haripur (West Bengal) have shown how ‘national’ nuclear power projects are increasingly coming into clash with ‘local’ stakeholders’ livelihoods and land rights. As with power plants, local people are also becoming restive about uranium mining and milling. While the largest vein deposits in Singhbhum and Jaduguda are older projects and had the benefit of common people not knowing their implications, recent projects in Meghalaya, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have faced people’s ire resulting in disastrous delays and cost-overruns.


Heavy Water — the third key element of nuclear power — has also had hiccups though Heavy Water reactors had been India’s hot favourite from the very beginning. All this has led to reactors working on low capacity and facing shut downs and Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) staying happy with turnkey projects and imports. Expensive plutonium separation from used fuel rods continues to be justified for its ‘tremendous potential’ for treating hazardous radioactive waste and for unlocking the huge energy reserves of low-grade uranium and thorium resources through breeder reactors to unfold India’s nuclear renaissance.


Nuclear genie continues to be the symbol of progress and power and our scientific and political leadership continues to vouch for its cost-effective and indigenous nature. It reminds one of the ‘Atoms for Peace’ of 1950s and the famous prognoses of Lewis Strauss, President Eisenhower’s Chairman of US Atomic Energy Commission, who once called it source of energy “too cheap to meter.”


The Power of Promise highlights how DAE continues to rely on future projections with zero correlation to its past accomplishments. From its original target of 10,000 MW by year 2000, to its revised target of 20,000 MW by 2020 since 1984, the heated debates on Indo-US nuclear deal were to make Cabinet Minister for Power, Sushilkumar Shinde declare that, against existing 4120 MW for 2008, “the U.S. will help us add 40,000 MW of nuclear power by the year 2020.” Atomic Energy Chairman Anil Kakodkar was to pitch in predicting, how by 2050, the share of nuclear power will constitute 20 to 35 per cent of electricity generation though it now stood at less than 3 per cent.


But it was for Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to top it all. At the International Conference on the Peaceful Uses of Atomic Energy in New Delhi in September 2009 he prophesied: “India would have 470 GW of nuclear power by mid-century” which was one-hundred times that of India’s current total. It is this penchant for making unrealisable projections that triggered Ramana’s research into evaluating DAE’s history.


Take the case of recently-in-news Koodankulam. The deal for two 1000 MW VVER-1000 Soviet reactors was originally signed in November 1988. This was soon after the notorious 1986 Chernobyl accident as also in the face of this reactor’s disastrous track records in Bulgaria and Czech Republic which had destroyed Soviet reputation.


DAE did not take into consideration the fact that Koodankulam lies at the edge of the Gulf of Mannar, one of the world’s richest marine biodiversity areas. The hot water discharged after cooling nuclear reactors is likely to affect adversely this precious biological reserve. Not just Environmental Impact Assessments are flawed but popular protests were met with either neglect or use of force.


DAE’s real institutional power, says Ramana, comes from its ability to addresses States’ basic need for legitimacy by promising “military security and development” at the same time. He shows how the DAE leadership was aware of this unique advantage and as early as in 1955 when Bhabha recruited a young doctorate from University of Paris, Vasudevya, and sent him to Saclay laboratories near Paris to learn about ‘polonium’ — a chemical element used to trigger a nuclear explosive device. Ramana does not dwell on this and refers to George Perkovich’s India’s Nuclear Bomb (2002).


Bhabha also used his old friends from Cambridge. Sir John Cockcroft, an important figure in British atomic research establishment, helped him procure engineering drawings, technical data, and enriched uranium fuel rods for building “a completely indigenous” Apsara reactor so admired by Nehru. Second reactor CIRUS was facilitated in by W. Bennettthen a senior official in Atomic Energy of Canada. Notorious American company Vittro International — which had suffered multiple failures in US — got the contract of India’s first heavy water plant near Nangal (Punjab) along with Di Nora of Italy, English Electric of UK and De Gussa from Germany. And again, “indigenously starting from scratch” is how DAE described it.


But there is more to it than mere cunning and inefficiency. Nuclear Power, Economic Development Discourse and the Environment: The Case of India (Manu Mathai 2013) explains this fatal attraction for nuclear power as integral to modern megamachine societies that see modernity as a linear process premised on powerful patronage of science by State. The National Politics of Nuclear Power(Benjamin Sovacool and Scott Valentine 2012) shows how inability to justify enormous funding for poor performance of nuclear power and inability to justify such investments in the name of nuclear weapons led Indian elite to calibrate songs of “nuclear non-alignment” and “nuclear apartheid” to celebrate liberation and equality. In Nucleus and Nation (Robert Anderson 2010) alludes to corruption and infighting within the scientific community and lack of political vision resulting in loss of talent (e.g. Noble laureate Hargobind Khorana or Meghnath Saha) and opportunities.


This political inaptness made slick scientists promise power generation and weaponisation that no other agency could offer, and the resultant political clout has been used by the DAE to bypass democracy. Besides, the DAE has been building other niches namely, seeking to export of indigenous reactors as also to producing other forms of energy beyond electricity. Recent climate change debates have brought another lease of life projecting nuclear power as less carbon-intensive and therefore environment friendly. The result is that DEA’s budget of Rs. 5,880 crore for 2013-14 is almost thirty-times up from its 1997-98 budget of Rs. 200 crore when India entered the nuclear league.


Narrower perspective


Given his training, Ramana fails to sufficiently underline the politics which is what finally determines all discourse on technology. Understandably, in view of popular imaginations of nuclear revolution being symbolised by mushroom cloud and radiation its enormous civilian spin-offs or political capital is not easy to publicise or internalise in scholarly writings. Ramana here falls prey to conventional superiority of hard sciences and advocacy and underplays its politics as superfluous, if not demeaning.


Other than counting in its tangible spin-offs, a balanced evaluation of nuclear power calls for contextualising it i.e. putting it in comparison with other sectors and with comparable other countries. It must also take into account the intangibles like power and prestige that have turned India from being an outcast to a partner of global nuclear sheriffs. In March 1983 President Reagan had proposed for gigantic Strategic Defence Initiative (SDI) promising to make US impregnable to enemy missiles. Thirty years later, US is yet operationalise even its initial technologies but SDI is credited to having exasperated former Soviet Union leading to its collapse thus making the US the sole surviving superpower of twenty-first century. The impact of India’s projections as market for nuclear reactors worth $150 billion has transformed India’s image far too much to be marginalised as puerile.


The Power of Promise, Examining Nuclear Energy in India: M. V. Ramana; Penguin Books India Pvt. Ltd, 11 Community Centre, Panchsheel Park, New Delhi-110017. Rs. 699.


(Swaran Singh is Professor for Diplomacy & Disarmament, Jawaharlal Nehru University)

Continue Reading... Labels: , ,


North Korea 'moves mid-range missile' - a vexing problem for the US

0 comments

_66748823_66748822North Korea has shifted a missile with "considerable range" to its east coast, South Korea's foreign minister says.


Kim Kwan-jin played down concerns that the missile could target the US mainland, and said the North's intentions were not yet clear.


Pyongyang earlier renewed threats of a nuclear strike against the US, though its missiles are not believed to be capable of carrying nuclear warheads.


The US is responding to North Korea by moving missile defence shields to Guam.


Meanwhile, Russia said Pyongyang's attempts to "violate decisions of the UN Security Council are categorically unacceptable".


"This radically complicates, if it doesn't in practice shut off, the prospects for resuming six-party talks," foreign ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich said in a statement on Thursday.


The talks involving North and South Korea, the US, Russia, China and Japan were last held in late 2008.


'Worst-case scenario'


Japan said it was co-operating closely with the US and South Korea to monitor the North's next move.


Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said that although the rhetoric was "increasingly provocative", Tokyo would "calmly" watch the situation.


Government spokesman Yoshihide Suga earlier told reporters that Japan was braced for a "worst-case scenario".


The Pentagon said the shield on its Pacific island territory would be ready within weeks, adding to warships already sent to the area.


The North has previously named Guam among a list of possible targets for attack that included Hawaii and the US mainland.


Japanese and South Korea reports had suggested the missile being moved by the North was a long-range one with a capability of hitting the US west coast.


However, experts believe the North's most powerful rocket, which it test-fired last December, has a range of 6,000km (3,700 miles) and can reach no further than Alaska.


Kim Kwan-jin told MPs in a parliamentary defence committee meeting that the missile had "considerable range".


"The missile does not seem to be aimed at the US mainland. It could be aimed at test firing or military drills," he said.


Analysts have interpreted Mr Kim's description as referring to the Musudan missile, estimated to have a range up to 4,000km. Guam would be within that range.


Declaration of war


The North is believed to have its main military research centres in the east.


It has test-fired missiles from there before, and its three nuclear weapons tests were carried out in the east.


Despite its belligerent rhetoric, North Korea has not taken direct military action since 2010, when it shelled a South Korean island and killed four people.


But in recent weeks it has threatened nuclear strikes and attacks on specific targets in the US and South Korea.


It has announced a formal declaration of war on the South, and pledged to reopen a mothballed nuclear reactor in defiance of UN Security Council resolutions.


In its latest statement, attributed to a military spokesman, the North appeared to refer to continuing military exercises between the US and South Korea in which the US has flown nuclear-capable bombers over the South.


The statement said the "ever-escalating US hostile policy towards the DPRK [North Korea] and its reckless nuclear threat will be smashed".


It promised to use "cutting-edge smaller, lighter and diversified nuclear strike means of the DPRK" and said the "merciless operation of its revolutionary armed forces in this regard has been finally examined and ratified".


The US Department of Defense said on Wednesday it would deploy the ballistic Terminal High Altitude Area Defense System (Thaad) to Guam in the coming weeks.


The Thaad system includes a truck-mounted launcher and interceptor missiles.


US officials recently also announced that the USS John McCain, a destroyer capable of intercepting missiles, had been positioned off the Korean peninsula.


Some analysts say Pyongyang's angry statements are of more concern than usual because it is unclear exactly what the North hopes to achieve.


As well as the angry statements, the North has also shut down an emergency telephone line between Seoul and Pyongyang and stopped South Koreans from working at a joint industrial complex in the North.


The Kaesong complex, one of the last remaining symbols of co-operation between the neighbours, is staffed mainly by North Koreans but funded and managed by South Korean firms.


Watch Video:




North Korea missile ranges map


he US has deployed missile defence systems in response to North Korea's threats against its neighbours.


The defences, which have the capability to shoot down missiles inside and outside the Earth's atmosphere, will be ready within weeks, the Pentagon says.


Along with the US, North Korea's neighbours Japan and South Korea also have missile defences in the area.



Map showing missile defence capabilities near North Korea


  • Japan: Patriot Advanced Capability-3 missile defence systems; warships with Aegis anti-missile capability

  • South Korea: Patriot Advanced Capability-2 defence systems

  • Guam: US Terminal High Altitude Area Defense System (Thaad) to be deployed

  • Regional waters: US Aegis-equipped warship USS John McCain moved to the Western Pacific in recent days



US newspapers react


The New York Times says: "The Obama administration was prudent to bolster its forces in the region. Many experts assume Mr Kim won't attack the world's top military power or its allies, but Washington has an obligation to guarantee that if this assumption is wrong, it can defend the homeland."


From the Washington Post: "What the administration really needs, however, is a new strategy for answering the provocations. Diplomacy hasn't worked; neither has pressuring China to restrain the Kim regime. What has are financial sanctions targeted at the ruling elite."


The New Jersey Star-Ledger says: "While many buy into the old disarmament-for-food storyline, there's another camp concerned this episode might be different: that Kim, with little more than a year on the job, might actually believe his nation has become a nuclear power."



North Korea - a vexing problem for the US


_66717207_017303768-1Every spring, cherry trees blossom in Washington, and North Korea's bluster and rhetoric reaches a fiery pitch.


Just as predictable as the changing seasons is Pyongyang's reaction to the annual military exercise between South Korea and the US, known as Foal Eagle.


The US says it has detected no signs that North Korea is actively preparing to go on the offensive - there has been no large-scale mobilisation of forces, for example.


Pyongyang's threats are usually conditional - if there is a real danger of a US attack, there will be a response, or a pre-emptive strike.


The tension usually goes down when the exercises end - until the next round of theatre and threats. But the possibility of an accident provoking a military confrontation is always real.


No creative ideas


North Korea has been a vexing problem for Washington for years, and so far the Obama administration has also failed to successfully engage Pyongyang and break this cycle - or curb its nuclear programme.


This year, the threats emanating form North Korea have sounded even more bombastic for several reasons.


There's a new young leader sitting in Pyongyang who's still asserting himself domestically and consolidating his power.


And South Korea has just elected its new president, Park Geun-hye - the country's first female leader. So, Kim Jong-un is - no doubt - testing her too.


The US reaction has remained mostly the same - with a few variations, officials in Washington repeat the line that North Korea's actions are not helpful and only further isolate the reclusive nation. There seem to be no creative ideas on the horizon.


Different rationale


During the Clinton administration, the US repeatedly cancelled military exercises to assuage Pyongyang's fears and defuse tension.


But more recently, Washington has matched the intensity of Pyongyang's rhetoric with a display of hardware.


After a deluge of 20 threats in a just a few weeks, the Obama administration also dispatched B-2 stealth bombers over the Korean peninsula.


The move was also meant to decrease pressure on South Korea to take unilateral action to sound tough in the face of its northern brethren.


But every attempt by the US and the international community to hold Pyongyang accountable, with sanctions for example, leads to even more erratic behaviour by the North Koreans.


And every time the US ignores Pyongyang's pleas for attention, responding with a resolve to continue military exercises, the North Koreans are further infuriated - partly because their thinking is driven by a different rationale.


They perceive US-South Korean defensive military exercises as potentially offensive, and analysts say the North Koreans believe their nuclear weapons are the only thing keeping them safe from a US attack.


Secret missions


President Obama spoke at the start of his first term about his willingness to extend a hand if America's foes were willing to unclench their fist.


Efforts to restart the six-party talks, which stalled in 2009, have failed.


And Pyongyang's behaviour makes it difficult for Mr Obama to be bold and engage in open, direct talks with the North Koreans without risking being lambasted by critics for caving in to threats and legitimizing Kim Jung-un.


Administration officials did travel to North Korea on secret missions last year to engage the newly-anointed leader to moderate his foreign policy.


One of the trips took place in April 2012 and was led by Joseph DeTrani - a North Korea expert who then headed America's National Counter-Proliferation Center.


Mr DeTrani, who is now president of the Intelligence and National Security Alliance, an industry group, would not openly confirm to the BBC that he had been on a mission to Pyongyang.


But he spoke about the need for diplomacy while indicating that the American approach had been rebuffed.


"The North Koreans know the US and China are available in the six-party talks. Their rhetoric is over the top and puts them in a difficult position."


Mr DeTrani added that the US was handling the situation well and that it was up to North Korea to break the cycle.


Willing to engage?


US policy towards North Korea is partly driven by Washington's support for Japan and South Korea and efforts to show that the US remains in lock-step with allies in the face of North Korea.


Diplomacy with North Korea takes place mostly through the six-party talks, which also involve Japan, China, South Korea and Russia.


Denuclearisation is always the stated end goal of every discussion. Because of North Korea's fears, justified or not, this often undermines the basis of the talks.


Over the past four years, the Obama administration's posture on North Korea was also dictated by former South Korean president Lee Myung-bak's hardline stance towards the North.


But Christopher Nelson, an Asia expert and vice-president of Samuels International Associates, points out that while the new South Korean leader has responded with tough words to Pyongyang's rhetoric, she has also indicated that if the North Koreans are willing to resume North-South talks, denuclearisation would not have to be the state end goal.


Mr Nelson said there are indications from the North Korean team at the UN that Pyongyang is now willing to engage.


While this still needs to be tested, what's unclear is whether the US is ready to go along with this approach.


In public, and for now, it's unlikely that the US will signal any easing of its policy towards North Korea.


But if Mrs Park persists with her offer, the US could say it respects its ally's choice and will support the approach.


There will be many opportunities to explore this and other diplomatic options in policy towards North Korea.


The South Korean foreign minister is in Washington this week.


The US Secretary of State, John Kerry, will be heading to Asia next week for his first trip to the region in the new job - with stops in Beijing, Tokyo and Seoul.


And President Park herself will meet President Obama in Washington in May.

Continue Reading... Labels: , , , , ,


New North Korean broadside warns 'moment of explosion' nears

0 comments

North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un visits a long-range artillery sub-unit of the Korean People's Army Unit 641, whose mission is to strike Baengnyeong Island of South KoreaNorth Korea stirred up fresh unease in Northeast Asia early Thursday, threatening attacks by a "smaller, lighter and diversified" nuclear force and warning, "The moment of explosion is approaching fast."


The new threat came after the North Koreans locked South Korean workers out of a joint factory complex and announced plans torestart a nuclear reactor it shut down five years ago. Meanwhile, the United States announced it was sending ballistic missile defenses to Guam, a Pacific territory that's home to U.S. naval and air bases.


"The moment of explosion is approaching fast. No one can say a war will break out in Korea or not and whether it will break out today or tomorrow," North Korea's state news agency KCNA declared in its latest broadside. "The responsibility for this grave situation entirely rests with the U.S. administration and military warmongers keen to encroach upon the DPRK's sovereignty and bring down its dignified social system with brigandish logic."


DPRK is short for Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the official name for North Korea.


Most observers say the North is still years away from having the technology to deliver a nuclear warhead on a missile. U.S. officials have said they see no unusual military movements across the Demilitarized Zone that splits the Korean Peninsula, despite weeks of bombastic rhetoric from Pyongyang, and many analysts say the increasingly belligerent talk is aimed at cementing the authority of the country's young leader, Kim Jong Un.


But the North does have plenty of conventional military firepower, including medium-range ballistic missiles that can carry high explosives for hundreds of miles. And U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said Wednesday that the North Korean threats to Guam, Hawaii and the U.S. mainland have to be taken seriously.


"It only takes being wrong once, and I don't want to be the secretary of defense who was wrong once," Hagel told an audience at Washington's National Defense University.


But Hagel also said there was still a "responsible" path for the North to take.


"I hope the North will ratchet this very dangerous rhetoric down," Hagel said. "There is a pathway that is responsible for the North to get on a path to peace working with their neighbors. There are many, many benefits to their people that could come. But they have got to be a responsible member of the world community, and you don't achieve that responsibility and peace and prosperity by making nuclear threats and taking very provocative actions."


Shows of force and flights of bombast


The United States has in turn made a show of its military strength in the annual drills, flying B-2 stealth bombers capable of carrying conventional or nuclear weapons,Cold War-era B-52s and F-22 Raptor stealth fighters over South Korea.


KCNA blamed the U.S. and its South Korean allies for the situation, however.


"We formally inform the White House and Pentagon that the ever-escalating U.S. hostile policy toward the DPRK and its reckless nuclear threat will be smashed by the strong will of all the united service personnel and people and cutting-edge smaller, lighter and diversified nuclear strike means of the DPRK and that the merciless operation of its revolutionary armed forces in this regard has been finally examined and ratified," it said. "The U.S. had better ponder over the prevailing grave situation."


OPINION: Why Kim Jong Un is not crazy


And the Wednesday decision to prevent South Korean workers and managers from entering the Kaesong Industrial Complex, which sits on the North's side of the border but houses operations of scores of South Korean companies, is a tangible sign of the tensions between the two sides.


It's a move that could end up hurting Pyongyang financially, since Kaesong is considered to be an important source of hard currency for Kim's government. More than 50,000 North Koreans work in the zone, producing hundreds of millions of dollars worth of goods each year.


Those workers earn on average $134 a month, of which North Korean authorities take about 45% in various taxes.


The North had threatened at the weekend to shut down the industrial complex.


North Korea's elaborate game of chicken with U.S.


A 'cash cow'


"We are highly skeptical that they will close this cash cow, as some recent reports have suggested," Stephan Haggard, professor at the School of International Relations and Pacific Studies at the University of California, San Diego, wrote in an article published Monday.


"But if they did, the costs would be higher for the North than for the South," Haggard wrote in the article for the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a Washington-based research organization.


Seoul said it "deeply regrets" the North's decision to stop South Koreans from entering Kaesong.


"North Korea's action creates a barrier to the stable operation" of the complex, the South Korean Unification Ministry said in a statement, urging its neighbor to "immediately normalize" the entry and exit process.


And South Korean Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin said military action could be taken if the safety of the South Koreans in the zone were to come under threat.


"If there is a serious situation, we are fully ready, including military measures," he said at a meeting of lawmakers, the semiofficial South Korean news agency Yonhap reported.


U.S. moves warship, sea-based radar to watch North Korea


The North has blocked the crossing into Kaesong before. In March 2009, also during joint U.S.-South Korean military drills that it said were a threat, Pyongyang shut the border, temporarily trapping hundreds of South Korean workers in the industrial complex.


It allowed many of the stranded workers to return to South Korea the next day, and fully reopened the border about a week later without explaining its reversal.


Hundreds of workers


It was unclear Wednesday whether the latest drama over Kaesong would play out in similar fashion.


At the start of the day, when the North informed the South that it would prevent new entries to the complex, there were 861 South Korean workers in there, according to the Unification Ministry. The North said it would continue to let people leave the zone.


Hundreds of workers rotate in and out of Kaesong each day in a series of scheduled entries and exits. Many of them stay there for several nights.


A total of 484 workers were registered Wednesday to enter the complex, the ministry said, and 446 were registered to leave.


During the late morning and early afternoon exit windows, only a trickle of workers was seen returning to South Korea from Kaesong, far fewer than the scores who were registered to leave at those times.


South Korean authorities didn't immediately provide an explanation for the discrepancy, saying the individual companies decide when to send workers back.


Kim Kyong-sin, the manager of a textile manufacturing company in Kaesong who came back into South Korea on Wednesday, said some people were staying in the complex because "they are worried they might not be able to come back in."


During the March 2009 crisis, many South Korean companies with operations in the zone chose to keep more workers there to compensate for those not being allowed in.


Kim said he was scheduled to go back into Kaesong on Thursday, but wasn't optimistic.


He said there were concerns inside the zone that the blockage at the border could cause supplies of production materials and food for workers to run out within days.


"I think if this continues there, business will be affected," Kim said. "I think the damage will be serious."


Kerry calls North 'reckless'


U.S. and South Korean officials have kept up their criticism of the North's actions in recent days.


John Kerry, the U.S. secretary of state, warned Tuesday that the United States will not accept North Korea as a "nuclear state."


"The bottom line is simply that what Kim Jong Un is choosing to do is provocative. It is dangerous, reckless," Kerry said during a joint briefing in Washington with South Korean Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se.


"And I reiterate again the United States will do what is necessary to defend ourselves and defend our allies, Korea and Japan," Kerry added. "We are fully prepared and capable of doing so, and I think the DPRK understands that."


The North has said that its nuclear weapons, which it describes as a deterrent, are no longer up for negotiation.

Continue Reading... Labels: , ,


 

Random Posts

Recent Comments

About Template

Return to top of page Copyright © 2010 | Flash News Converted into Blogger Template by HackTutors